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What Happens after U.S. Shutdown

October 18th, 2013

 

On 1 October, the U.S. announced shutdown in its federal government and laid off about 800,000 civil workers for garden leave. However, this is almost next to nothing while compared to country’s population of 315 million. Many people are confident that President Obama will reach an agreement in the U.S. Congress with Republican Party and resume the operation very soon. However, the political impasse has lasted more than 5 days and longer than what most have thought!

Rated as World’s first economy, America is facing defunct in growth while federal debt keeps enlarging. The partial closure of federal government is just a hoax to create short-term plunge in regional markets. However, what is the real objective behind the President’s administration for making such a “strategic move”?

In my personal opinion, President Obama will finish his office-term in early 2015. Putting anyone in his shoes, a country leader would want to leave his name hanging in the Hall of Fame rather than to be smeared. To attain this, the Dow Jones Average Index (DJIA) must remain in the upside 30 percent range from whatever top price it has achieved so far. Hence, it will be a difficult task to taper the financial stimulus for another 6 – 9 months from now.

In broadest aspect, the U.S. government’s current account is not growing in surplus from national revenues. Consumer debts and spending are shrinking the GDP growth. Exports are struggling to poise for recovery while housing demands are still in meager purchase. Therefore, a drawdown in stock markets and slight waning of investors’ confidence from government shutdown are just planned recoils to boost the markets aftermath!

The U.S. government would not remain partial handicapped for more than 3 weeks or longer than in 1996. At today’s economy, the daily losses from government shutdown account about USD1 billion income. Perhaps, Obama administration refuses to negotiate with Republican Party in the Congress with a reason to illustrate the “checked losses” to his political opponents. Thus, he should have valid “firepower” to propose a continual budget spending for at least another 6 months in order to let everyone sleep well on high pillow!

Taking a look into the global economies, Eurozone has been dormant for many months while sweeping the massive sovereign debts under red carpet. Though the fear of ballooning bankruptcies has subsided among Euro nations, no good news have been heard on resolving the red figures!

Greece is going for the third bailout by International Monetary Fund and European Union in early 2014. Fiscal budget plan has to be shown in October – November to lenders for obtaining a loan grant for another 6 months. On the other hand, Syria crisis has been submerged for the time being as United Nation Council has called off the military actions. No one knows what will follow despite the viral threats of Arab Springs are still stoking the fire in the Middle East. At current global slowdown, there is nothing to be glad if the average low inflation cannot support high rising crude prices should the pipelines be cut off in Gulf regions.

To summarize my analysis, DJIA stocks and Asia equities will begin to recover right after U.S. Congress re-opens federal government. The DJIA might reach new marginal record high in Q1 2014 above 15,700 levels but the hot monies will be struggling to exit in Asia equities on fictitiously firm sentiments. Moving into second semester, keep a close watch on Eurozone debt resurgence while China is expected to call for slowdown in order to ebb RenMinbi for controlling inflation.

Hence, the current shutdown will lead to a short-term booster but create deep doldrums in red deficits. Moving into the near future, beware the day when the U.S. officials finally admit they could not pay for the huge deficits. The disaster will make men-in-the-streets pay for this huge negative debt following the dissipation of billions from stock markets melting down!

~ This article is general information only. It does not solicit or give any opinion for investment and trading.

 
 
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玉不琢不成器,人不教难成才

A jade stone is useless before it is processed;

a man is good-for-nothing until he is educated.

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Daily Journal, Smart Money

Lobang Ah – ‘Immuned” Stocks from the Recent Market Turmoil

June 8th, 2012

 

The stock market has been hammering the players since 02-May-2012, a falling knife that cannot be caught but instead bleeded badly.

For the past 1 month, STI had dropped 220+ points i.e. 7+% from the high floor of 3000+.  Most stocks had been battered and lost 10% to 30% from their highs.

However, these 3 stocks  are always within my radar and they seem to have  ‘immunization’.  They are not meant for contra-ing, you will lose money instead.

Boustead has been holding around $0.85, trending upward instead, dividend around $0.07 last year and this year todate has declared S$0.03 dividend.

Singpost has been holding around S$0.98 to S$1.02 for the  past 1 month, trending sideways.  A stock that normally gives $0.0748  dividend. This year todate, declared $0.0375 dividend.

Mapletree Ind most bouyant and obviously trending upward, IPO in 2011 and had given out $0.0748 dividend.  This year up to May, already declared $0.0438 dividend.

Imagine, if above stocks are bought at below S$1.00, your yield is mostly likely more than 7% of return.

Imagine again, that if you bought 100 lot of each stock, your annual income is around S$21,000.  Taxable?

 

Seeing possibilities where others can only see rocks.

Daily Journal, For Our Children, Lobang Queen, Smart Money

Where is STI Heading?

May 18th, 2012

 

Ivan Koh has updated the STI Charts, a guideline to follow, thanks man.

 

The left chart is weekly whilst the right is Daily.  If you want a bigger chart, right click your mouse.

The words in RED is :  Possible next 3 to 6 mths’ trading zone and I interpreted it between 2900 and 2800.

 

Some interesting and intelligent comments by Derrick Tan, my facebook’s friend:

….One of the most important lessons any trader/investor can learn is when to stay out of the market altogether. Remember, when u stand on the sidelines-that’s a position too!

 

…..Generally, stocks fall 3 times faster than they rise. Why? Fear is a stronger emotion than greed. Panic causes traders/investors to sell even more quickly than optimism entices them to buy.

 

 

 

Daily Journal, For Our Children, Smart Money

Discipline in Trading

May 17th, 2012

 

I would rather be OUT wishing I was IN than

IN, wishing I was OUT!

When in Doubt, stay OUT!

It’s Better to miss a Good Trade than to Chase a Bad One!

It’s Okay to take Profits!

Put in a CUT-LOSS position in every trade

Do not top-up Margin Call

What is the Current Sector NOW?

 

Have We Learned From Our Mistake?  Check

Daily Journal, For Our Children, Smart Money , , ,

Lobang Ah – Where is Gold Heading?

May 11th, 2012

 

Auntie Me is not up to standard yet to chart so I get a Guru, Ivan Koh,  to chart the Gold for me.

Always gana spoonfeeded, so never learn how to fish, spoilt by good friends.  Don’t sweat the small stuff, let the gurus crack their head to come up charts for us, haha.

See the benefits of having guru friends, haha.

 

Gold historical high @ 1920.95 (Red comment in the chart)

Spot Gold Chart dated 09/05/12


In case you are unable to  see the most important comment in the box, I repeat it word by word below:

“Strong dollar vs Euro currencies may put pressure on Gold price short-term… cyclical low in June-Aug should provide support at 1520 and risk down to 1450.”  So cleverly or professionally worded, no commitment.

So, when to buy leh?  Wait and see loh.

In the end you still need to learn to fish and not fish on the table.

 

An Investment in Knowledge pays the Best Interest!

 

Daily Journal, Lobang Queen, Smart Money , , ,

Lobang Ah – Taser International

May 2nd, 2012

 

Taser International – U.S. Stock

“pa baey xi  BUT  a thiang” gun  – Taser Gun

It takes 4 months to go up and 4 months to go down, so be patience.

Last December 2011, highest done is US$6.33.

This March 2012, lowest done is US$3.98.

 

 

Yesterday, 01-05-12, last done US$4.64

Game for it?

 

 

 

Don’t Get Married To  ONE  Stock

 

Daily Journal, Lobang Queen, Smart Money , ,

I like to trade Olam

April 27th, 2012

 

While waiting for the market to clear its vision, don’t know want to dive or want to fly, there is still kachang puteh money to make from trading some stocks in a range.

Olam is currently trading in the range of 2.28 and 2.38. Put in the Stop loss at 2.18 in order not to get yourself into depression. The stock itself is trending too, so it’s either break up or break down.  There is no proof that every trade is a winner.

It’s ‘chiam tan’ (small profit) and hard-earned too.  You have to ‘geng’ (figure out) when to buy in and how much you want to make, how many days you want to hold.  At times, you walk in and walk out within the day. You have to check the sentiment of the day too. You need at least 10 lots to make the  kachang puteh with a commission rate of 0.18% is more ideal.

After you have tasted the ‘fruit’, walk away.  Wait for the next ‘bud’ (the low) to appear.  Probably, can play  2 or 3 times in a month.

Cut Loss is one of the criteria you must set.

 

 

Don’t confuse a correction with a bear market.

Lobang Queen, Smart Money ,

Buy Apple or buy Maple Ind or both?

April 24th, 2012

 

 

When my 2nd son turned 21, we were thinking of what to give him.  Ang pow?

NO, NO, NO.  He will spend it away and as usual, to buy his camera stuff.  He is ‘rich’ in his camera assets, very diligently upgrading it.  Of course, he made some money out of it too.  He photo-shoots wedding ceremonies, birthday parties and volunteered at the Youth Olympics, blah blah blah.  Probably, recup half of his money.

We thought it’s time to give our children some valuable lesson and asset.  So, we decided to buy him 1 lot of Maple Ind. which costed about S$1090 at that time with the condition that he had to keep it for 3 years or can dispose it at the advice of his ‘professional’ mama.

He had been collecting about S$60+ of dividend per year.  Isn’t it better than you keep the S$1,090 in the bank to earn the miserable interest or eventually becomes ‘camera asset’.

Of late, I try to entice him to buy another lot of Maple Ind.

Instead, he counter-offered me to buy Apple instead.  He is another Apple ‘xiao ren’ (die-hard).  Apple stock is sky-high, how to buy?

He said, Apple will go up to US$1,000+, so a sentimental buy?  If everyone holds a hp, ipad, desktop, notebook and apple accessories which had happened in our household, it sure will go up.  AND, Apple is coming up with more products soon.  So, shall we chase the stock?

No try, no gain.  Probably, he can learn a lesson or two for choosing Apple.  So, we entered at US$596.00.  He bought 2 pcs x US$596.0 = US$1,192 (already costed in the comm, etc).  He also wants Maple Ind x 1 lot, as low as possible.

Sometimes, as caring parents, we bought some to standby and then give them a ‘good’ price to start off, haha.  So, I bought at S$1.13 and probably will sell to him at S$1.10 to make him feel that he is making the ‘profit’.  He hasn’t paid up because he is in Australia and he will be back this June for a short holiday, so I hold the stock loh.

By the way,  if you have any photography needs during this period 25June to 8July 2012, do contact me at cnyan8@yahoo.com.sgI am his Marketing Manager too.

Back to Apple.   The share went up to US$633.00.  He was happy that it went up, made the right choice.

Yesterday price was US$571.70!  So he is making a paper loss of US$24.3 x 2 + US$20+ comm.

So how, to sell or to hold?  Any good advice?

 

An Apple a day, keeps the doctor away!

 

It is best we chart our own destiny and manage our own future.

 

 

Daily Journal, For Our Children, Smart Money , ,

Lobang Ah -What stocks to analyse?

April 19th, 2012

 

I like to watch stocks, especially, blue chips, that had slipped and injured at A&E Dept, then  mmm jai ai ki arh ai lok, (undecisive to climb the stairs or do the slide further to be hospitalised.)

1) DBS Bank

2) SGX

Enough liao loh.  How can you monitor so many ‘patients’?

Above needs VOLUME, long n fat candle, … but so far NO SHOW

Need patience loh

Keppel Corp had crossed the hurdle and probably will climb further in the near future, pray for it.

Wah, receive so many orders and don’t climb, what kind of company?  Then give bonus issue loh.  Paying dividend 0.26 cents on  09-05-12 and ex-ing on 25-04-12.  Next dividend should be around July/August going by previous experience.

 

Daily Journal, Smart Money , ,

The Gambler by Kenny Rogers

April 16th, 2012

Last Friday, a Talk , “Trading with Bollinger Band” by Mr. Nicholas Tan, a man with 20+ years in forex trading, share a lobang with us.

He recommended us to enjoy a song video by Kenny Rogers, as produced below:

Gambling is likened to Trading in Financial Markets:

The useful and meaningful lyrics extracted from the song as follows:

“If you’re gonna play the game boy

Ya gotta learn to play it right ’cause you got to

know when to hold ’em

know when to fold ’em

know when to walk away

and know when to run”

Very True but how many play it right?

We tend to hold the loser not the winner ,

sell the winning stock too early

never want to cut loss

still want to chase the stock when we suppose to walk away

freeze when markets stumble, too injured to run home

So, have we learn from our lessons? or repeat again until we graduate?

Daily Journal, Smart Money, Videos , , ,